U.S. Steel to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - United States Steel Corporation (X) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, with a consensus estimate indicating a revenue decline and potential challenges in earnings performance [1][3][12]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues is $3,621.6 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.9% [3]. Factors Influencing Performance - Operational efficiencies, cost management, and increased volumes from Big River Steel and Big River 2 (BR2) are anticipated to positively impact performance [4]. - However, weaker year-over-year prices and soft demand in Europe are likely to negatively affect results [4]. Price Trends - U.S. steel prices fell sharply last year, with benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices dropping over 40% from $1,200 per short ton to around $700 per short ton [5]. - Recent price hikes and tariffs have increased HRC prices to above $900 per short ton, but the benefits may not be fully realized in the first quarter [6]. Segment Performance - The Flat-Rolled segment is expected to perform well due to a strong commercial strategy, while the Mini Mill segment is projected to grow from higher volumes [9]. - Demand remains weak in Europe, and the Tubular segment faces challenges from a weak pricing environment [9]. Average Realized Prices - Estimated average realized prices for the Flat-Rolled unit is $960, an 8.9% year-over-year decrease; for the Mini Mill segment, it is $797, an 18.4% decrease; for the European segment, it is $760, an 8.5% decline; and for the Tubular unit, it is $1,643, a 27.5% decline [10]. Earnings Prediction - The earnings ESP for U.S. Steel is -2.79%, with a consensus estimate indicating a loss of 48 cents for the first quarter [12].