美国3月通胀意外“停滞” 经济‘喘息期’或难持续

Group 1 - The PCE price index remained flat in March, marking the first "zero growth" in nearly a year, while the core PCE also showed no change, indicating a temporary easing of inflationary pressures [1][2] - Real consumer spending increased by 0.7% month-over-month, surpassing previous values, suggesting that consumers are accelerating purchases ahead of impending tariff increases [1][2] - March saw the strongest growth in real disposable income in over a year, significantly supporting consumer spending, particularly in durable goods like automobiles [3] Group 2 - The first quarter of 2023 recorded the first quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since 2022, primarily due to a surge in imports and moderate consumer spending growth [2] - Despite the temporary slowdown in inflation, companies like Shein and Procter & Gamble have begun raising prices, while others like American Airlines and General Motors have withdrawn earnings guidance due to policy uncertainties [3] - The upcoming implementation of tariffs is expected to exert upward pressure on prices, potentially dampening consumer behavior and complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decisions [3]