TreeHouse Foods to Report Q1 Earnings: What Should Investors Expect?

Core Viewpoint - TreeHouse Foods, Inc. (THS) is expected to report declines in both revenue and adjusted loss for the first quarter of 2025, with revenue estimated at $789.6 million, reflecting a 3.8% decrease year-over-year [1] Group 1: Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly adjusted loss has been narrowed to 21 cents per share, indicating a significant decline from the previous year's figure [1] - The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise average of 17.8%, but in the last reported quarter, it lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.1% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Ongoing operational disruptions and macroeconomic headwinds are likely to negatively impact THS's first-quarter performance, particularly due to a frozen griddle product recall at the Brantford facility [2] - Weak private label consumption trends amid broader consumer spending pressures are expected to further affect performance [3] - Strategic margin management actions, including exiting low-margin contracts, are anticipated to have intentionally reduced volume, compounding negative impacts on revenue [3] Group 3: Profitability Challenges - Lower volumes are hurting operating leverage, making it difficult for the company to absorb fixed costs, which compresses gross margin [4] - One-time recall-related costs, including plant sanitation and restart costs, are also exerting pressure on profitability [4] Group 4: Guidance and Initiatives - For the first quarter, TreeHouse Foods expects adjusted net sales of at least$ 792 million and adjusted EBITDA of at least $52 million, indicating potential gains from cost-saving initiatives [5] - The company is focused on implementing the TreeHouse Management Operating System and other supply-chain initiatives to improve execution and enhance margin performance [6] Group 5: Earnings Prediction - The Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for TreeHouse Foods, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +63.42% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]