“铜博士”上演“跳水式”暴跌 投资者对经济前景愈发悲观

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in copper prices is seen as a negative indicator for global economic health, reflecting increasing investor pessimism about economic prospects [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On a single trading day, copper futures for July delivery fell by 5.4%, closing at $4.61 per pound, marking the lowest closing level since April 11 and the largest single-day drop in over three weeks [1]. - In April, copper prices experienced an 8.4% cumulative decline, the largest monthly drop since June 2022, despite a year-to-date increase of 14.5% [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The current market trends suggest a "W-shaped recovery," indicating a potential second downturn after an initial recovery, which poses a more complex challenge than the typical "V-shaped recovery" [4]. - The decline in copper prices is attributed to macroeconomic concerns, including falling U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices, signaling pressure on the global economy [1][5]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Market Sentiment - Market anxiety is heightened by fears of a recession and a lack of substantial progress in U.S.-China trade relations, which are seen as the primary factors suppressing copper prices [5]. - The dramatic price fluctuations are linked to previous tariff discussions initiated by the Trump administration, which initially caused a spike in copper prices [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Current support for copper prices is identified at $4.39 per pound, with a potential danger zone if prices fall below $4.03, indicating deeper economic issues [7]. - Optimism remains regarding upcoming trade negotiations, particularly with Japan, India, and South Korea, which could influence copper prices positively [7]. - A rebound in copper prices is contingent on several factors, including tariff relief and improved economic data from the U.S. and China, with projections suggesting a potential rise to $10,000 per metric ton by the end of 2025 [7][8].