金十整理：机构前瞻日本央行利率决议——普遍预期会“按兵不动”

Core Viewpoint - The general consensus among institutions is that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with various factors influencing this decision, including economic growth forecasts and inflation expectations. Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation Expectations - Mitsubishi UFJ expects to lower its economic growth and core inflation forecasts, suggesting potential for yen appreciation despite the cautious stance on further rate hikes [1] - Citibank indicates that rising real wages support consumption, but the implementation of tariffs may prevent the Bank of Japan from raising rates this year [1] - Standard & Poor's anticipates no change in Japanese interest rates before the second half of the year, while the central bank's stance will be under scrutiny as inflation continues to rise [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Projections - A Reuters survey shows that 84% of economists expect rates to remain at 0.50% before the end of June, with 52% predicting a rate hike in the third quarter [1] - ANZ forecasts that the Bank of Japan will remain on hold amid trade policy uncertainties, pushing the next rate hike expectation from May to October [1] - IG Group suggests that ongoing tariff uncertainties and economic growth risks will lead to a decision to maintain current rates, although wage growth exceeding inflation could bolster confidence in tightening policy [2] Group 3: Policy Guidance and Forward-Looking Statements - Continuum Economics predicts that the Bank of Japan will keep rates unchanged and not alter its forward guidance, facing a dilemma due to persistent inflation and tariff uncertainties [2] - Monex Securities expects rates to remain stable, focusing on future outlooks, with the balance between rising inflation and increasing uncertainties being crucial for the rate path [1]