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华大智造(688114):收入平稳增长 25年拐点可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue growth in 2024 but a decline in Q1 2025, while maintaining a positive outlook due to domestic market opportunities arising from government policies [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 30.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was -6.01 billion yuan [1]. - Q4 2024 saw significant revenue growth of 61.6% year-on-year, reaching 11.43 billion yuan [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue declined by 14.3% year-on-year to 4.55 billion yuan, with net profit at -1.33 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The gene sequencing business generated revenue of 23.48 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with instrument revenue at 9.60 billion yuan (+6.9% year-on-year) and reagent revenue at 13.73 billion yuan (+1.4% year-on-year) [2]. - The laboratory automation segment reported revenue of 2.09 billion yuan, with over 500 new installations, indicating a shift away from pandemic-related demand [2]. - New business revenue reached 4.0 billion yuan, excluding pandemic-related income, marking a 57.1% year-on-year increase, with single-cell related revenue growing by 172.0% [2]. Group 3: Market Position and Outlook - The domestic gene sequencing business performed well in 2024, with revenue of 16.07 billion yuan (+11.4% year-on-year) and a market share of 63.8% in new installations [3]. - The overseas segment faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 12.7% year-on-year to 7.41 billion yuan, but opportunities for growth exist due to competitive pricing and channel advantages [3]. Group 4: Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross margin improved to 55.9% in 2024, with specific margins for gene sequencing, laboratory automation, and new businesses at 60.3%, 44.4%, and 35.5% respectively [4]. - R&D expenses decreased by 18.0% year-on-year to 7.46 billion yuan in 2024, while sales and management expenses increased [4]. - In Q1 2025, sales, management, and R&D expenses decreased by 10.5%, 9.2%, and 32.8% year-on-year respectively [4]. Group 5: Revenue Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 36.65 billion yuan, 46.91 billion yuan, and 51.47 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% downward revision for 2025 and 2026 [5]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic player in the gene sequencing equipment sector, with a target price of 88.0 yuan for 2025, based on a 10x price-to-sales ratio [5].