Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-05-01 04:23Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), emphasizing that short-term fluctuations do not alter the bank's stable operational foundation [1]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, ICBC reported revenue of 212.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 3.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.2 billion yuan, down 3.99% year-over-year [2][3]. - The annualized Return on Equity (ROE) decreased by 1.00 percentage point to 9.06% [2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to a decrease in net interest margin and negative growth in other non-interest income, despite asset scale expansion and provision releases supporting performance [3]. - Net interest income fell by 2.9% year-over-year in Q1 2025, worsening from a 2.7% decline in 2024 [3]. Asset and Loan Growth - Total assets grew by 8.3% year-over-year by the end of Q1 2025, with loans and financial investments increasing by 8.5% and 23.6%, respectively [3]. - New corporate loans and retail loans added 1.11 trillion yuan and 182 billion yuan, contributing 84.8% and 13.9% to loan growth, respectively [3]. Deposit and Liability Trends - Total deposits increased by 4.0% year-over-year, significantly lower than the 8.6% growth in total liabilities, indicating a slow recovery of general deposits and regulatory impacts on interbank deposits [3]. Net Interest Margin and Cost of Liabilities - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.33%, down 9 basis points from 2024 [4]. - The yield on interest-earning assets decreased by 37 basis points to 2.77%, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities fell by 28 basis points to 1.63% [4]. Non-Interest Income and Asset Quality - Net fee and commission income declined by 1.2% year-over-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed, possibly due to a recovery in the capital market [4]. - The non-performing loan balance increased by 15.9 billion yuan to 395.4 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33%, indicating stable asset quality [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to maintain its leading role among state-owned banks, with projected net profit growth of 0.94%, 2.67%, and 3.49% for 2025-2027 [5]. - The book value per share (BPS) is forecasted to be 11.38 yuan, 12.60 yuan, and 14.25 yuan for the respective years [5].