LME铜资深人士：在上海港设立LME交割库的利弊分析

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has officially approved the establishment of its first certified warehouses in Hong Kong, which has garnered significant attention in the industry. Despite high operational costs and global market volatility due to trade tensions, LME and its partners are committed to advancing Hong Kong as a new node in its global storage network, driven by China's substantial metal consumption and the logistical needs of the Asian market [1][2][4]. Group 1: LME's Global Warehouse Network - LME is the most influential exchange among the three major exchanges for base metals trading, accounting for approximately 70% of total trading volume as of 2011, with a settlement volume of around 146 million contracts [3]. - LME has over 600 delivery warehouses globally, with nine approved in the Asia-Pacific region, specifically targeting the significant demand for base metals, particularly copper, in China [4][5]. - China's copper consumption accounts for over 45% of global demand, heavily relying on LME pricing for imports, which has led to inefficiencies in resource allocation and increased import costs for China [4][5]. Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities in China - The absence of LME delivery warehouses in China has resulted in a situation where unreported imported copper and domestic processing copper flow to surrounding LME warehouses, increasing costs for Chinese consumers and limiting Shanghai's potential as a commodity hub [5][6]. - The Chinese government has historically restricted foreign exchanges from establishing delivery warehouses in China, which has hindered LME's entry despite Shanghai's readiness in terms of logistics and regulatory conditions [6][10]. - The ongoing price disparity between LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has led to significant losses for Chinese copper importers, with price differences reaching up to 5% [10][11]. Group 3: Future Implications for Shanghai and LME - The establishment of LME warehouses in Shanghai could significantly enhance the port's status as a global commodity hub, potentially increasing throughput by 3 million tons annually and generating substantial economic benefits [14]. - The relationship between LME and SHFE is characterized by their distinct roles, with LME serving as a global pricing center and SHFE as a regional one, indicating that the establishment of LME warehouses may not directly compete with SHFE's trading volume [15][16]. - A more integrated approach between the two exchanges could emerge if a mechanism for warehouse receipt exchange is developed, potentially increasing trading activity and benefiting both markets [16].