经济热点问答丨美国经济萎缩意味着什么？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, raising concerns about the impact of high tariff policies on economic growth and consumer confidence [1][3]. Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2025, the worst performance in over two years [1]. - The contraction is attributed to a surge in imports and a reduction in government spending, with imports increasing by 50.9% from January to March 2025 [1][2]. Tariff Impact - High tariffs have led to increased import activity as businesses stockpile goods in anticipation of further tariff hikes, which may suppress future consumer spending [2][3]. - Moody's analysis indicates that tariffs are eroding consumer purchasing power, contributing to a decline in domestic consumption and consumer confidence, with the consumer confidence index hitting its lowest level since the pandemic [3]. Employment Trends - Private sector job creation has significantly slowed, with April's new job numbers falling short of market expectations, indicating a potential downturn in employment opportunities [3][4]. Recession Outlook - Analysts predict a 65% chance of the U.S. economy entering a recession in 2025 due to policy uncertainties and the adverse effects of high tariffs on supply chains and demand [4][5]. - Bloomberg estimates a 50% likelihood of recession within the next year, as high tariffs complicate economic conditions [5].