鸣志电器(603728)：业绩低于预期 机器人空心杯电机快速增长

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to factory relocation and increased management and R&D expenses, leading to overall performance significantly below expectations [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.416 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.99%, and a net profit of 78 million yuan, down 44.5% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 595 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.16%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.2 million yuan, an increase of 10.82% [1] Business Segments - The company faced overall growth pressure in 2024, with specific revenue changes across segments: control motors and drives (-5.45%), power and lighting (+10.03%), equipment status management (-16.33%), and trading business (-8.70%) [2] - Notably, the brushless motor segment saw a revenue increase of 31% to 220 million yuan, with sales of robot hollow cups growing by 200% [2] - The precision linear drive segment reported a revenue increase of 5% to 79.83 million yuan, driven by new product launches [2] - The motion control segment generated approximately 551 million yuan in revenue, with servo revenue at about 231 million yuan, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase [2] Profitability Metrics - The company's overall gross margin improved slightly in 2024, with a gross margin of 37.68%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for control motors and drives was approximately 38.78%, showing a decline of 0.62 percentage points [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was about 36.87%, down 1.21 percentage points, primarily due to intensified industry competition [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to fluctuations in gross margin and weakened industry demand, the company has revised its 2025 net profit forecast down by 64.6% to 100 million yuan, while introducing a 2026 net profit forecast of 154 million yuan [4] - Following a significant valuation increase in the humanoid robot sector since September 2024, the target price for 2026 has been raised by 70.7% to 70 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 6.3% compared to the current stock price [4]