华荣股份(603855)：国内资本开支待修复 出口超预期增长

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 798 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%, and a net profit of 116 million yuan, up 36.6%, driven by significant growth in overseas business [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 798 million yuan, reflecting a 24.0% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 116 million yuan, representing a 36.6% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 49.4% due to changes in business structure, particularly the increase in renewable energy revenue [1] - The net profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 14.5% in Q1 2025 [1] - Cash flow showed improvement with a net cash outflow from operating activities of 30 million yuan, which was 42 million yuan less than the previous year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Domestic demand is expected to marginally improve, with rapid growth in safety engineering projects anticipated [2] - The company is likely to see a narrowing decline in domestic explosion-proof business in 2025 due to increased demand in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector and a decrease in the domestic base [2] - The company has made progress in obtaining certifications with major overseas clients like Saudi Aramco and is establishing subsidiaries in the Middle East, indicating significant long-term growth potential in international markets [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's EPS forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 11% to 1.54 yuan, with a new forecast for 2026 at 1.74 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13.5x for 2025 and 12.0x for 2026 [3] - The target price is maintained at 25.50 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 24.09% based on 16.5x and 14.7x P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]