Microchip Technology (MCHP) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?

Core Viewpoint - Microchip Technology (MCHP) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended March 2025, with earnings expected to be $0.10 per share, reflecting an 82.5% decrease, and revenues projected at $961.07 million, down 27.5% from the previous year [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for May 8, and the stock may experience upward movement if the reported numbers exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.33% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate for Microchip Tech is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +8.03%, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. - A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Microchip Tech was expected to post earnings of $0.28 per share but delivered only $0.20, resulting in a surprise of -28.57% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13]. Industry Context - In the semiconductor industry, M/A-Com (MTSI) is expected to report earnings of $0.84 per share for the same quarter, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 42.4%, with revenues projected at $230.08 million, up 27% [17]. - The consensus EPS estimate for M/A-Com has been revised 1% higher, but with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, it is challenging to predict a beat [18].