Core Viewpoint - The snack sector is expected to experience a slight decline in net profit margin in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points to 6.6%, primarily due to rising costs and increased expenditure by some companies to support market expansion, leading to short-term profit pressure. However, long-term profitability is expected to improve due to production efficiency and management enhancements, as well as the strengthening of major product advantages [1][2]. Group 1: 2024 and Q1 2025 Operational Review - In 2024, the snack sector is projected to achieve revenue of 54.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with companies embracing new channels and maintaining strong growth momentum. However, Q1 2025 revenue is expected to decline by 5.3% year-on-year to 14.42 billion yuan, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting quarterly performance, particularly for companies with significant gift-giving attributes [1][2]. Group 2: Profitability Analysis - The snack sector is anticipated to achieve a net profit of 3.63 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1%. However, Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 are expected to see significant declines in net profit, with year-on-year decreases of 15.5% and 33.6%, respectively, due to rising costs and limited scale effects from the Spring Festival [2]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The growth of the snack industry is increasingly driven by channel transformation, with rapid expansion of discount snack stores and the rise of platforms like Douyin. The retail channel is expected to continue evolving in 2025, with discount formats expanding and supermarkets adjusting their operations to enhance efficiency and product differentiation [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include: 1) Salted Fish (002847.SZ): Benefiting from the explosive demand for konjac products and strong brand-building capabilities 2) Wei Long Delicious (09985): Leading company in the konjac category with rapid growth 3) Youyou Food (603697.SH): Actively expanding into new channels with member products 4) Three Squirrels (300783.SZ): Opening up offline market space through distribution and expanding beverage categories 5) Good Idea (002582.SZ): Improvement in core business driven by cost advantages [4]. - Short-term focus on undervalued companies with growth potential includes: Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ), Jinzhai Food (003000.SZ), and Qiaqia Food (002557.SZ) [4].
国盛证券：零食行业景气延续 产品驱动成长
智通财经网·2025-05-02 06:37