S&P Global(US:SPGI) Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan·2025-05-02 11:04Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's tariff policy is creating significant uncertainty in the automotive industry, leading to increased costs for manufacturers and consumers, ultimately resulting in a projected decline in light vehicle sales by over 640,000 units by 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policy - The uncertainty caused by the tariff policy is one of the most challenging factors for the automotive industry, which typically makes decisions based on 10 to 20-year cycles rather than short-term [3]. - The tariff policy has artificially increased manufacturing costs, which are not linked to demand, raw material costs, or supply chain dynamics, but are ultimately borne by consumers [5]. Group 2: Sales Projections - S&P Global forecasts that the U.S. light vehicle sales will decrease by over 640,000 units by 2025 due to the impact of the tariff policy [6]. Group 3: Manufacturing Adjustments - Adjusting the supply chain, such as relocating factories or replacing components, is a complex process that cannot be completed within a year [6]. - Establishing a new manufacturing facility in another country can take up to three years, including site selection and construction time, along with the establishment of local procurement and supplier networks [8].