Peloton Moves Toward Profitability, But Can the Turnaround Last?

Core Viewpoint - Peloton Interactive's stock has seen a recent increase following an upgrade from Truist Financial, indicating potential growth and improved financial health despite ongoing challenges in revenue growth and market skepticism [1][4][3]. Financial Performance - Peloton's projected FY25 revenue is between $2.43 billion and $2.48 billion, reflecting an approximate 9% year-over-year decrease at the midpoint, with an Adjusted EBITDA target of $300 million to $350 million and positive free cash flow of at least $200 million [5][6]. - In Q2 FY25, Peloton generated $106 million in free cash flow, a significant recovery from a $37 million loss in the same quarter last year, and raised its full-year free cash flow target to at least $200 million [7][8]. - The company achieved a total gross margin of 47.2%, with the subscription business at 67.9% and Connected Fitness Products' gross margin rising to 12.9%, up from 4.3% the previous year [10]. Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - Peloton has implemented a restructuring plan aimed at achieving over $200 million in annual savings by year-end, resulting in a 25% reduction in operating expenses year-over-year [9]. - The company's net debt decreased by 30% year-over-year to $670.3 million, aided by a successful mid-2024 debt refinancing [11]. Subscriber Trends - Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions reached 2.88 million, slightly above expectations, but showed a sequential drop of 21,000 and a 4% decline year-over-year, while churn improved to 1.4% [12]. - Paid App subscriptions fell 19% year-over-year to 580,000 due to a strategic pullback in App-specific marketing [13]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investor sentiment remains mixed, with approximately 69 million shares, or 17.93% of the float, sold short, indicating lingering skepticism but also potential for volatility if momentum continues [14]. - The market is awaiting evidence that Peloton's improved financial stability can lead to renewed revenue growth, with the new executive team focusing on building a sustainable financial foundation [16][17].