新闻调查｜美国关税战之害的世纪警示

Core Viewpoint - The negative impacts of the U.S. tariff policy have exceeded market expectations, causing troubles for the U.S. economy and increasing uncertainty in the global economy, reminiscent of the disastrous effects of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the 1930s [1][7]. Historical Context - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, initiated in 1929, aimed to protect U.S. agricultural interests by significantly raising tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods, with rates reaching as high as 60% [2][3]. - The act faced strong opposition from academia and business but was signed into law by President Hoover, leading to retaliatory tariffs from other countries and igniting a global trade war [2][3]. Economic Consequences - Following the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, U.S. imports from Europe plummeted from $1.334 billion in 1929 to $390 million in 1932, while exports dropped from $2.341 billion to $784 million, resulting in a 67% decrease in trade volume [3]. - The U.S. unemployment rate soared to 25.1% by 1933, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 89% from its peak in 1929 [3][4]. - The global trade volume and industrial output also suffered, with a 66% decline in global trade and a 33% drop in industrial output by 1934 [3][4]. Modern Implications - The current U.S. tariff policies, initiated under the Trump administration and continued by the Biden administration, have not achieved their intended goals of manufacturing return or trade deficit reduction, instead causing economic damage and loss of credibility [7][8]. - The U.S. agricultural sector faces estimated annual losses exceeding $12 billion due to these tariffs, which are ultimately passed on to consumers, exacerbating inflation risks [7][8]. Global Trade Dynamics - The persistence of high tariffs distorts price signals and hinders global productivity, leading to long-term economic damage [8]. - In today's highly specialized and integrated global economy, the negative impacts of protectionism spread rapidly, disrupting global supply chains and hindering economic growth [8][9].