4 Energy Firms Likely to Outperform Q1 Earnings Estimates

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is facing challenges due to macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility, but some companies are positioned to potentially exceed earnings expectations, which could positively impact their stock prices in the near term [1]. Sector Snapshot - Oil prices have decreased in Q1 2025, with West Texas Intermediate crude averaging $71.84 per barrel, down from $77.56 in Q1 2024, attributed to soft global demand, rising inventories, and increased non-OPEC+ production [2]. - U.S. natural gas prices have rebounded sharply, averaging $4.15 per MMBtu compared to $2.13 a year ago, driven by colder weather and growing LNG exports [2]. Earnings Expectations - S&P 500 energy firms are projected to report a 12.9% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 0.3% dip in revenues, indicating ongoing pressure on profit margins [3][5]. - This decline is an improvement from the 22.4% earnings drop in Q4 2024, but still reflects significant challenges for oil-centric companies [3][6]. Company Performance Insights - Some energy companies are expected to perform better due to effective cost management, operational efficiency, and a focus on natural gas, which may lead to earnings surprises [4][7]. - Energy Transfer (ET) has an Earnings ESP of +9.23% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings scheduled for release on May 6 [11][12]. - MPLX LP also has a +9.23% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings set to be released on May 6 [12]. - Pembina Pipeline (PBA) has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings scheduled for May 8 [13]. - ConocoPhillips (COP) has an Earnings ESP of +2.76% and a Zacks Rank 3, with earnings also scheduled for May 8 [14].