深观察丨关税政策满月 美国受“内伤”

Group 1 - The recent tariff policy in the U.S. has led to significant economic concerns, with a notable decline in GDP by 0.3% in Q1, marking the first contraction in three years [2] - Consumer spending, a critical component of the U.S. economy, grew only 1.8% in Q1, the slowest rate since mid-2023 [2] - Various industries, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals, shipping, apparel, and retail, are experiencing severe impacts from the tariff policy, leading to widespread investor sell-offs and consumer dissatisfaction [2] Group 2 - A survey by the American Toy Association revealed that over 80% of the 400+ companies surveyed are delaying or canceling orders due to tariff impacts, with nearly half fearing bankruptcy within months [3] - The agricultural sector, traditionally a strong export area for the U.S., is facing turmoil, with small farms struggling to survive amid the tariff war [4] - The Port of Los Angeles, the largest container receiving port in the U.S., is expecting a 35.91% year-on-year decline in container arrivals for the week of May 4-10, indicating a significant slowdown in imports [4] Group 3 - The logistics industry, employing approximately 9 million people nationwide, is likely to see reduced demand for truck transportation and warehouse work due to declining container volumes, which could lead to widespread layoffs [5] - Economic experts warn that the ongoing decline in imports may result in material shortages and increased prices for consumers, creating a dual challenge of empty shelves and rising costs [5] - Concerns are growing among political and economic figures regarding the long-term effects of the tariff policy, with warnings that it could push the U.S. economy towards a recession [6] Group 4 - The tariff policy is viewed as a significant tax increase, potentially adding thousands of dollars to the tax burden of middle-class families [6] - Experts argue that the new tariffs will reduce manufacturing jobs rather than increase them, undermining the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing [6] - The current tariff strategy is described as a "national disaster," with predictions of delayed investment decisions and declining consumer confidence [6][7]