Mastercard's Cross-Border Surge And Pricing Actions Drive Analyst Optimism

Core Viewpoint - JP Morgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang maintains an Overweight rating on Mastercard Inc. with a price target of $610, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential and performance metrics [1][7]. Financial Performance - Mastercard reported fiscal first-quarter net revenues of $7.25 billion, a 14% increase, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $7.12 billion [1]. - Adjusted EPS rose 13% to $3.73, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $3.57 [1]. - Revenue yield was approximately 0.9 basis points ahead of expectations and increased by two basis points year-over-year, supported by acquisitions, currency volatility, and pricing [1]. Growth Outlook - The company anticipates mid-teens net revenue growth for the second quarter, compared to the $7.78 billion consensus estimate [4]. - For fiscal 2025, Mastercard expects low teen-digit revenue growth, against a consensus estimate of $31.51 billion [4]. - Huang projects rounded 12% foreign exchange neutral or organic revenue growth in 2025, with a slight decrease to 11% for 2026 [6]. Market Trends - Despite a leap year causing expected deceleration in volume growth, Mastercard achieved stable, mid-teens organic revenue growth in the first quarter [2]. - Cross-border growth decelerated slightly more than anticipated but remains comfortably in the mid-teens, with management expressing optimism about diversifying the high-margin cross-border business [3]. Pricing and Valuation - The price target of $610 is based on a 33 times multiple of Huang's calendar 2026 EPS, aligning with the current next-twelve-months multiple and ahead of its three-year average [7]. - The analyst noted that this multiple is justified by Mastercard's premium growth and pricing actions that mitigate near-term foreign-exchange-neutral or organic estimates [7]. Stock Performance - Mastercard's stock is currently up 1.96% at $557.09 [8].