万泰生物(603392)：业绩短期承压 期待九价HPV疫苗贡献增量

Group 1 - The company reported a significant decline in Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.76%, and a net loss of 53 million yuan, primarily due to challenges in the vaccine segment from market adjustments and government procurement [1] - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is in the application stage for market approval, with progress on clinical trials and commercial production conditions being met, indicating a positive outlook for future revenue generation [2] - The company anticipates a recovery in operating performance as the nine-valent HPV vaccine and other products receive approval, projecting revenues of 3.17 billion yuan, 11.4 billion yuan, and 28.63 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 350 million yuan, 2.13 billion yuan, and 6.01 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 2 - The nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to reach a sales peak of 22.8 billion yuan, with a valuation of 86.5 billion yuan based on a 4x PS multiple and a 95% success rate for market approval, highlighting its potential as a key driver for the company's future performance [3] - The company maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating, reflecting confidence in the nine-valent HPV vaccine's market potential and the overall recovery of the company's financial performance [3]