东吴证券：给予中国铁建买入评级

Core Viewpoint - China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) reported a decline in Q1 2025 earnings, with total revenue of 256.76 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.15 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year, while maintaining a "buy" rating from Dongwu Securities [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 6.6%, consistent with the decline in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 7.5%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company effectively controlled expenses, with slight reductions in the expense ratios despite declining revenue, including sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios of 0.50%, 1.98%, 1.15%, and 0.53%, respectively [2]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 2.01%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by asset impairment losses and investment income [2]. Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow improved, with a net cash outflow of 38.95 billion yuan, a reduction of 7.65 billion yuan year-on-year, and cash collection and payment ratios of 107.3% and 119.1%, respectively [3]. - As of the end of Q1, the company had interest-bearing debt of 541.1 billion yuan, an increase of 141.6 billion yuan year-on-year, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 77.6%, up 2.0 percentage points [3]. New Contracts and Orders - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 totaled 492.8 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, with engineering contracts down 18.7% to 371 billion yuan, while green environmental contracts increased by 77.1% to 49 billion yuan [4]. - Significant growth was observed in infrastructure sectors, with new contracts in railways, mining, and electricity increasing by 66.3%, 139.3%, and 29.2%, respectively [4]. - The company’s backlog of contracts reached 7.8613 trillion yuan, up 12.5% year-on-year, indicating strong order visibility [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Despite external economic pressures, the company is expected to benefit from increased fiscal policies and infrastructure investments, with projected net profits of 21.9 billion yuan, 22.4 billion yuan, and 22.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [5]. - The company remains undervalued as a leading state-owned enterprise in infrastructure, with a maintained "buy" rating [5].