迈为股份(300751)：净利率承压 非光伏业务未来可期

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.83 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 926 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.31%, which was below expectations due to pressure in the photovoltaic industry and delays in order acceptance [1] - In Q1 2025, the company generated a revenue of 2.23 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.47% and 8.01% respectively, but the net profit dropped to 162 million yuan, a decrease of 37.69% year-on-year and 3.18% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to significant credit impairment losses [1][2] Financial Performance - The company faced a significant decline in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 561 million yuan in 2024, down 92.57% year-on-year, and a negative cash flow of 352 million yuan in Q1 2025, attributed to increased bank acceptance bill payments and slow customer payments [3] - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.11%, down 2.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 9.80%, down 1.01 percentage points, mainly due to changes in accounting policies [2] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 29.10%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.84 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.61 percentage points, while the net margin was 6.98%, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline [2] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the overseas market expansion for HJT equipment and the development of its display and semiconductor business, with HJT technology offering lower labor and operational costs and higher photoelectric conversion efficiency [3] - The company has achieved a leading market share in domestic wafer laser grooving equipment and has made significant progress in key equipment deliveries, with semiconductor and display sectors generating revenue of 67 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 88.41% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 21% to 1.19 billion yuan and 1.31 billion yuan respectively, with an expected net profit of 1.46 billion yuan for 2027 [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 89.04 yuan, based on a 21 times PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating despite the downward revision due to potential short-term supply-demand mismatches in the photovoltaic sector [4]