Is the Trump Administration About to Cause AbbVie, Eli Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson Stocks to Crash?

Core Viewpoint - Pharmaceutical stocks are generally considered safe investments during market volatility, as their underlying businesses remain stable regardless of economic fluctuations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three largest pharmaceutical companies by market capitalization—AbbVie, Eli Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson—have shown solid stock gains this year, even as major market indexes have declined [2] Group 2: Tariff Concerns - Johnson & Johnson has included approximately $400 million in its 2025 guidance to account for potential tariff impacts, specifically on its medtech business [4] - President Trump announced plans to impose a "major tariff" on drug imports, indicating a forthcoming "tariff wall" that could disrupt supply chains and lead to shortages [4][5] - AbbVie’s CEO expressed skepticism about the ability to pass increased costs from tariffs onto customers due to existing contractual penalties and government regulations [6] Group 3: International Reference Pricing - The Trump administration is considering international reference pricing for Medicare and Medicaid drugs, which could significantly impact revenue for AbbVie, Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson [8][9] - The pharmaceutical industry organization PhRMA warns that international reference pricing could lead to delays in access to medications, fewer new therapies, and diminished U.S. leadership in biopharmaceutical innovation [9] - Each of the three companies has high-cost medications under Medicare Part D, making them particularly vulnerable to revenue reductions if international reference pricing is implemented [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite concerns over tariffs and international pricing strategies, there is no immediate expectation of a stock crash for AbbVie, Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson [10] - The Trump administration has indicated that drugmakers will have time to adjust their manufacturing processes before tariffs take effect, and the companies are already investing in U.S. facilities [11] - Previous attempts to implement international reference pricing were blocked by legal challenges, suggesting that future efforts may also face significant opposition [12]