Group 1 - Optimism in overseas markets has led to a reversal of the "sell America" trade, with significant rebounds in U.S. stocks and the dollar index surpassing the 100 mark [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has seen a nine-day consecutive rise, marking the longest streak since 2004, effectively erasing losses from early April [4] - The easing of trade tensions, such as the U.S. exempting Canada and Mexico from certain tariffs, is a primary driver of this market behavior [4] Group 2 - Economic data has shown resilience, with the U.S. Q1 GDP declining by 0.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, despite being influenced by various special factors [7] - The non-farm payroll data for April indicated an addition of 177,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, bolstering confidence in the U.S. economy [7] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to July, reflecting the positive employment data and better-than-expected ISM data [7] Group 3 - The strengthening of the offshore yuan against the dollar is attributed to the positive sentiment surrounding trade negotiations [9][10] - As of the latest week, the dollar/offshore yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.211, with the yuan appreciating nearly 700 points during the week [10] - The return of funds to U.S. assets is evident, with a notable rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% [10] Group 4 - The Hong Kong stock market has also shown strength, with the Hang Seng Index rebounding by 1.74% to 22,504.68 points on May 2 [11] - The Central Political Bureau's positive tone has stabilized market sentiment, emphasizing the need for proactive macro policies [11] - Investors are advised to adopt a range trading strategy while closely monitoring U.S.-China trade negotiations and potential changes in non-tariff barriers [11]
节中离岸人民币狂飙！海外交易逻辑巨变
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-05-04 10:04