郑眼看盘丨关税困扰稍缓，A股动能略增

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a volatile consolidation pattern over three trading days, with an average daily turnover slightly exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while the Shanghai Composite Index faced a slight decline due to adjustments in bank stocks [1] - The market sentiment was dominated by uncertainties regarding tariffs, leading to a wait-and-see approach from both bulls and bears [1] - Positive signals regarding US-China tariff negotiations emerged, with the US indicating a willingness to negotiate, and China responding accordingly [1] Group 2 - The US announced a cancellation of tariff exemptions for small-value imports from China, which could have a negative impact on market sentiment [1] - The US GDP for the first quarter showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, which was worse than the expected decline of 0.1%, raising concerns about a potential recession [2] - Market expectations regarding the US economy's recession risk have increased, with a probability of approximately 57% for a recession by 2025, significantly higher than the 18% probability noted at the time of Trump's inauguration [2] Group 3 - Following the May Day holiday, A-shares are expected to continue fluctuating around tariff-related news, with uncertainty in finding a clear direction [3] - If tariff news improves, A-shares may gain some upward momentum, but the impact is likely to be limited due to the ongoing nature of tariff issues [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance and consider adjusting their portfolio structure, with a focus on export-related stocks if tariff issues significantly ease [3]