【首席观察】黄金：加速金融化

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the accelerated financialization of gold, highlighting its emerging role as a key asset in the global investment landscape amid a restructuring of the monetary order and increasing geopolitical risks [2][3][5]. Group 1: Financialization of Gold - The financialization of gold is driven by a shift in the global monetary order, with gold becoming a potential alternative to the dollar as a reserve asset [3][5]. - The World Gold Council reported a 1% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q1 2025, reaching 1,206 tons, the highest level for a first quarter since 2016 [3]. - China's gold reserves increased to 2,292.33 tons by the end of March 2025, with domestic gold ETF holdings rising by 327.73% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Economic Logic Behind Rising Gold Prices - Gold prices surged to over $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, driven by a combination of geopolitical risks, U.S. debt concerns, and a significant increase in central bank gold purchases [5]. - Central banks have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, indicating a potential return of gold to a central role in the international monetary system [5]. Group 3: Three Pillars of Gold Financialization - The financialization of gold is supported by three main pillars: liquidity revolution, restructured pricing mechanisms, and functional transformation [8][10]. - The liquidity revolution involves the creation of financial products like gold ETFs and futures, which enhance trading speed and convenience [8]. - The pricing mechanism has shifted from physical supply-demand dynamics to algorithm-driven high-frequency trading, significantly impacting market liquidity [8]. Group 4: Structural Changes in the Gold Market - The Chinese gold market is experiencing a structural shift from physical dominance to financial dominance, with financial products outpacing physical gold transactions [10]. - The three-layer structure of gold includes physical, financial, and symbolic layers, with financial derivatives now dominating trading volumes [10]. Group 5: Gold as a Global Financial Asset - Gold's financialization allows it to transition from a static store of value to a dynamic asset in global financial infrastructure [11]. - As of April 2025, global gold ETF assets reached a record high of $345 billion, redefining gold as a new type of "borderless liquidity anchor" [11]. Group 6: Addressing the Triffin Dilemma - The financialization of gold may provide a solution to the Triffin dilemma by offering a non-sovereign international asset as a reserve alternative [12]. - The ongoing demand for gold from central banks is expected to persist, driven by geopolitical and currency risks, indicating a profound transformation in the global financial and trade systems [12][14].