中信建投：关税博弈下 CIPS、数字人民币与货币桥支付或将迎来新机遇

Group 1 - The core payment models for cross-border transactions include agency model, interconnected model, single platform model, and peer-to-peer model, with the SWIFT-based agency model dominating the landscape [2][20][39] - The SWIFT system is the most widely used financial communication infrastructure globally, but its governance structure has led to a centralized weakness, making it susceptible to being used as a tool for U.S. financial sanctions [2][10][17] - Future development paths for cross-border payments include creating payment systems based on local currencies, expanding coverage through national payment systems, building independent payment networks via third-party payments, and utilizing blockchain technology for new payment systems [2][20][21] Group 2 - The CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) has been established as a crucial infrastructure for the internationalization of the Renminbi, with increasing business volume and participant engagement since its inception in 2015 [23][39] - As of March 2025, CIPS had 170 direct participants and 1,497 indirect participants, covering 119 countries and regions, with a total transaction volume of 175.49 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.60% [39][26] - The digital Renminbi and the currency bridge project aim to enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi and facilitate cross-border transactions, with significant progress in pilot programs and real transactions [40][41][35] Group 3 - The SWIFT system's reliance on the U.S. dollar as the primary settlement currency poses challenges, as the dollar's dominance is expected to continue despite increasing calls for a multipolar payment system [16][19] - The governance structure of SWIFT has raised concerns about its ability to protect member countries' monetary sovereignty, leading to questions about its credibility [17][19] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and tariff escalations are driving the urgency for China to develop alternative payment systems to mitigate reliance on SWIFT and the dollar [38][39]