Better Dividend Stock: Whirlpool vs. UPS

Core Viewpoint - The dividend yields of UPS (6.8%) and Whirlpool (9.1%) are attractive for passive income investors, but both companies face doubts regarding the sustainability of these dividends due to challenging market conditions [1][8]. Whirlpool Stock Analysis - Whirlpool's stock has seen a decline this year, attributed to high interest rates affecting the housing market and discretionary demand for appliances, with first-quarter organic sales rising only 2.2% year-over-year [3][4]. - Competitor behavior, particularly increased imports from Asian appliance producers ahead of tariffs, has disrupted the market, impacting Whirlpool's sales in the first and second quarters [4]. - Whirlpool's full-year guidance suggests a sales target of $15.8 billion and an EBIT margin of 6.8%, indicating an EBIT of $1.07 billion, with free cash flow projected between $500 million to $600 million, which should cover the $384 million in dividends paid last year [6]. - The company has significant long-term debt of $4.8 billion, with $1.85 billion maturing this year, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend if free cash flow deteriorates [7]. UPS Stock Analysis - UPS is facing challenges in maintaining its dividend due to a stretched payout ratio, with management aiming for a 50% payout of earnings while dealing with a reduction in Amazon delivery volume and a declining demand environment [8][9]. - The current dividend of $6.56 per share is nearly covered by the projected earnings of $7.11 in 2025, resulting in a payout ratio of 92% [9]. - UPS anticipates $5.7 billion in free cash flow for 2025, which is just sufficient to cover the $5.5 billion cash dividend, indicating potential strain on dividend sustainability [9][11]. - The company reported a higher-than-expected decline in average daily volume in February and March, with guidance for a 9% year-over-year decline in the second quarter [11]. Comparison of UPS and Whirlpool - Overall, UPS's dividend appears more sustainable than Whirlpool's, with UPS managing $19.5 billion in long-term debt against a projected $5.7 billion in free cash flow for 2025, while Whirlpool's $4.8 billion in long-term debt is significantly higher than its estimated free cash flow [12]. - There is a possibility that both companies may cut their dividends by the end of the year, which could disappoint investors seeking dividends [13].