中航证券：给予宝武镁业增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182) is facing performance pressure due to declining magnesium prices, despite a focus on deep processing products and an increase in revenue from these segments [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.39%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 160 million yuan, down 47.91% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.08% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.88%, with a net profit of 28.18 million yuan, down 53.58% year-on-year [2]. Magnesium Price Trends - Magnesium prices have continued to decline, with the average price for magnesium ingots in 2024 at 18,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.73% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, magnesium ingot prices fell below 16,000 yuan per ton, leading to cash flow issues for some magnesium alloy companies and prompting production cuts [2]. Deep Processing Product Development - The company has increased the proportion of deep processing products in its overall business, with magnesium-aluminum deep processing accounting for 45.3% of operating revenue in 2024, up from 37.7% in 2023 [2]. - The report emphasizes the strategic significance of magnesium alloys in various industries, including automotive, construction, robotics, and aerospace, as the company continues to expand its production capacity [2]. Investment Outlook - Despite the ongoing pressure from low magnesium prices, the company is expected to benefit from lower raw material costs and the increasing penetration of magnesium-aluminum alloy deep processing products into downstream applications [2]. - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 9.7 billion yuan, 11.8 billion yuan, and 13.8 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected to be 200 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 630 million yuan [2].