中国大豆市场扛住“压力测试”，原因有哪些

Group 1 - The core strategies for maintaining a healthy development of China's soybean market are substitution, reduction, and increased production [1] - China's soybean imports from the US have drastically decreased due to tariffs, with imports dropping from 72,800 tons to only 1,800 tons in a week, a decline of over 97% [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices saw a significant increase of 30% in early April, although they later retreated [1] Group 2 - In March 2025, China's grain imports decreased by 54.1% year-on-year, with soybean imports at 3.503 million tons, a 36.8% drop, marking the lowest level in 17 years [2] - The decline in imports is attributed to delayed shipments from Brazil and the avoidance of US soybeans due to tariffs [2] - Domestic traders and crushing enterprises are increasingly turning to Brazilian soybeans, with 40 ships (approximately 2.4 million tons) booked for delivery between May and July [2] Group 3 - In 2024, China imported 22.13 million tons of US soybeans, a decrease of 5.7%, while imports from Brazil rose to 74.65 million tons, an increase of 6.7% [3] - The share of US soybeans in China's imports has fallen to 21%, while Brazil's share has risen to 71% [3] Group 4 - Brazilian soybeans have advantages over US soybeans in terms of price, quality, and supply, with a landed price of approximately $420 per ton compared to $451 for US soybeans [4] - Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, solidifying its position as the world's largest exporter [4] - The reliance on Brazilian soybeans may pose risks due to seasonal supply concentration and the high involvement of US capital in Brazil's soybean industry [4] Group 5 - China's soybean market has a high dependency on imports, with a self-sufficiency rate of only 20% [6] - The government is promoting measures to increase domestic soybean production without expanding arable land, focusing on improving yield through technology and policy support [6] - The domestic soybean consumption structure is changing, with approximately 13 million tons of edible soybeans being fully met by domestic production, while over 100 million tons for oil and feed rely heavily on imports [7] Group 6 - The Ministry of Agriculture has launched a plan to reduce feed grain consumption, aiming for a 7% reduction in feed consumption per kilogram of animal product by 2030 [8] - Feed companies are proactively adopting measures to reduce soybean meal usage, with New Hope and Muyuan adopting low-soy diets to enhance feed economics [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that the impact of reduced imports from the US on China's grain supply will be minimal due to the availability of domestic reserves [9]