AT&T Surges 24% in 6 Months: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - AT&T Inc. has significantly outperformed the Wireless National industry and major competitors over the past year, indicating strong market performance and growth potential [1][4]. Price Performance - AT&T's stock has increased by 23.7% over the past year, while the Wireless National industry grew by 9.6%. In contrast, the S&P 500 composite and Zacks Computer & Technology sector declined by 3.9% and 6%, respectively [1]. - The stock closed at $27.61, reflecting a 0.1% decrease in the last trading session and is currently trading at a 5% discount to its 52-week high [5]. Major Tailwinds for AT&T - The company is enhancing its network infrastructure, focusing on 5G and fiber networks to improve coverage and capacity nationwide [6]. - AT&T reported 290,000 post-paid net additions in Q1 2025, including 324,000 postpaid wireless phone additions, with a postpaid churn rate of 0.83% [7]. - The company aims to exceed 30 million total fiber locations by mid-2025 and over 50 million by 2029, transitioning from legacy copper networks to 5G and fiber [8]. - AT&T is capitalizing on the 5G boom, utilizing millimeter-wave spectrum in dense areas and mid- and low-band spectrum in suburban and rural areas [9]. - The company is focusing on edge computing services to enhance data traffic management and improve customer experiences through partnerships with Google Cloud and Microsoft [10][12]. Financial Performance - AT&T reaffirmed its full-year free cash flow guidance of over $16 billion, with Q1 2025 generating $9.05 billion in cash from operations and $3.15 billion in free cash flow [13]. - The company plans to initiate share repurchases targeting $3 billion by year-end under a $10 billion authorization, indicating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [14]. Challenges - Despite strong wireless growth, AT&T faces challenges from declining legacy services and competitive pressures in its wireline division [15]. - High-speed Internet revenues are contracting due to the decline of legacy Digital Subscriber Line services and increased competition from cable companies [16]. - The evolving macroeconomic environment and potential tariff impacts on costs remain concerns for the company [18]. - Analysts have revised estimates downwards for the current and next year, reflecting bearish sentiments regarding the stock's growth potential [19]. Valuation Metrics - AT&T's shares are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 12.96, which is lower than the industry average of 13.88 but above its historical mean of 9.64 [21]. Investment Strategy - By investing in infrastructure and new technologies, AT&T is positioned to enhance connectivity and drive postpaid subscriber growth [23]. - However, a saturated wireless market and competitive pricing pressures have affected profitability, leading to skepticism about future growth [24].