银河证券：电子行业坚定“科技自立”与“AI+”投资主线

Core Insights - As of the end of Q4 2024, the allocation of actively managed public funds in the electronic sector is expected to reach 9.63% of the total market value of fund equity investments, indicating an overweight position [1] - The electronic industry index has risen further this year due to multiple factors, including the exploration of new paths for large model development by Deepseek, a meeting held by the central government with private entrepreneurs, and increased capital expenditures by leading domestic cloud companies [1] - The U.S. tariff policy is accelerating the "blockchain" of the global supply chain, which is expected to have a significant impact on global manufacturing [1] Industry Impact - Certain semiconductor products, such as logic chips and memory chips, are temporarily exempt from tariffs; however, the imposition of tariffs on supporting materials (like substrates and packaging adhesives) is raising overall manufacturing costs in the semiconductor industry [1] - The evolving landscape of the global semiconductor industry and the complex international trade environment may lead overseas companies to adopt a "Local for local" production strategy to mitigate tariff impacts when establishing operations in China [1] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariff policies on China's semiconductor industry is relatively limited, but companies reliant on the U.S. market may face pressure [1] - In the long term, the effects of tariffs could delay downstream demand recovery and lead to order cancellations, while domestic replacement and self-controlled enterprises are likely to benefit [1]