【机构策略】市场短期或偏结构性行情

Group 1 - The outlook for May suggests that "signing for the sake of signing" may become a narrative in overseas markets, with expectations of further recovery in risk appetite and a focus on theme-based trading opportunities in A-shares due to low institutional holdings [1] - Economic impacts are already occurring, with three major trends expected to remain unchanged: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, the reconstruction of European defense and the improvement of energy, infrastructure, and resource reserves, and the necessity for China to promote "dual circulation" to stimulate domestic demand [1] - Global market risk aversion has decreased, leading to a recovery in risk appetite, supported by liquidity and a slowdown in trade tensions, with domestic consumption improving due to the May Day holiday [1] Group 2 - The first quarter reports indicate that small-cap growth and technology sectors are likely to outperform in May, with significant improvements in small-cap performance compared to 2024 [2] - The TMT sector shows notable earnings improvements, particularly in sub-sectors like computers, media, and semiconductors [2] - Potential catalysts for technology in May include the anticipated release of new models such as DeepSeek's R2, suggesting a structurally driven market [2]