news flash·2025-05-06 01:08Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a strong growth in civil aviation passenger traffic, with expectations for a robust summer travel season in 2025, driven by increased travel demand and favorable government policies [1] Group 1: Travel Demand and Performance - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism anticipates domestic tourism to exceed 350 million trips during the "May Day" holiday, representing a year-on-year growth of over 15% [1] - In the first three days of the holiday, inter-regional travel increased by 4.9%, with civil aviation and railways showing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 10.5% respectively, surpassing pre-holiday expectations [1] Group 2: Aviation Utilization and Pricing - The utilization rate of aircraft reached historical highs during the holiday, with narrow-body aircraft utilization on May 1 increasing by 0.7 hours compared to 2019 [1] - Due to supply constraints and optimized airline revenue strategies, ticket prices are expected to remain stable, with an anticipated average fare decline of no more than 5% year-on-year [1] Group 3: International Travel and Supply Constraints - The report highlights a "two-way warming" in cross-border travel, with the recovery rate of international flights reaching 91% in the first three days of the holiday [1] - Boeing delivery disruptions are expected to further limit supply increases, with a projected net fleet growth rate of only 1% to 2% in 2025, alongside a downward trend in oil prices providing strong support for airline performance [1]