“五一”假期离岸人民币大涨近700点 在岸人民币节后有望补涨

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has shown strong performance during the May Day holiday, with a cumulative increase of 687 basis points to 7.2011 against the USD, indicating a potential upward adjustment for the onshore RMB post-holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Performance - Four main reasons are identified for the recent strength of the offshore RMB: 1. Record high travel data during the May Day holiday may inject more economic growth momentum 2. Positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations during the holiday 3. Increased allocation of risk-averse funds into RMB assets 4. A declining trend in the USD index, leading to a gradual release of settlement demand [4][5]. Group 2: Sino-U.S. Trade Negotiations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, suggesting a softening stance that could facilitate trade dialogue and address high tariffs, contributing to the RMB's recent strength [4][5]. - Analysts expect that the RMB's future performance will largely depend on the progress of Sino-U.S. trade talks and the movement of the USD [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB market experienced lower trading activity during the holiday, which may have amplified the rise in the RMB due to short-covering by overseas institutions [4]. - The overall sentiment in the foreign exchange market has improved due to favorable news from Sino-U.S. negotiations, leading to a potential decrease in tariff pressure on the RMB [5][6]. Group 4: Broader Currency Trends - Other Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar and New Taiwan dollar, have also appreciated against the USD, indicating a regional trend of currency strengthening [7][8]. - Market expectations suggest that the USD may continue to weaken, influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions and ongoing trade dynamics [9].