20cm速递 |午后A股继续发力，科技股领衔，科创芯片ETF（589100）涨超1%

Group 1 - The Asian semiconductor market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.8% from 2025 to 2030, with AI computing chips (CAGR 37%), automotive semiconductors (expected to reach $120 billion by 2030), and advanced packaging (CAGR 32%) identified as core growth areas [1] - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the semiconductor index (code: 000685), selecting listed companies involved in semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, focusing on technological innovation and high-end manufacturing [1] Group 2 - Global semiconductor sales are expected to reach $617.3 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, primarily driven by logic circuits ($212.6 billion) and memory chips ($165.1 billion, up 78.9%) [2] - Domestic wafer foundries are continuously expanding capacity, maintaining high utilization rates. The impact of U.S. tariff policies has led to exemptions for logic and memory chips, while tariffs on supporting materials (such as substrates and packaging adhesives) have increased semiconductor manufacturing costs, accelerating the "blockchain" of the global supply chain [2] - Major overseas manufacturers may adopt more "localized production" strategies, with limited impact from tariffs on the Chinese semiconductor industry. Companies reliant on the U.S. market may face short-term pressure, while long-term domestic substitution and self-controlled enterprises are expected to benefit [2] - AI is driving the replacement of consumer electronics and the development of terminal hardware, but caution is advised regarding the potential for semiconductor recovery to fall short of expectations, as well as risks from international trade friction and technological iteration [2]