摩根士丹利基金市场洞察：五一假期超预期出行数据预示居民消费仍存在巨大潜力

Market Performance - In April, the overall market experienced a decline, with significant drops occurring on April 7, while other trading days remained stable [1] - The major indices showed varied performance, with the STAR 50, Shanghai 50, and Shanghai Composite Index experiencing smaller declines, while the ChiNext Index and CSI 500 saw larger drops [1] - The average daily trading volume decreased significantly to below 1.24 trillion yuan, marking a continuous decline over two months from a peak of 1.84 trillion yuan in February [1] Earnings Reports - As of last week, the first quarter earnings reports for A-shares were completed, showing better-than-expected overall performance [2] - In Q1 2025, total revenue for all A-listed companies declined by 0.37% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately 1.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.47% year-on-year [2] - Non-financial companies reported a net profit of 779.7 billion yuan, up 4.17% year-on-year, contrasting with negative growth in the previous four quarters [2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April fell to 49%, indicating a contraction and reflecting significant declines in production indices, orders, and price indices due to external demand pressures [2] - Despite the challenges, the first quarter performance of listed companies is expected to be better than initial pessimistic forecasts for the first half of the year [2] Consumer Trends - The "May Day" holiday saw strong travel demand, with nationwide railway passenger volume increasing by over 10% year-on-year for three consecutive days from April 30 to May 2, and record travel numbers on May 1 [2] - The robust travel data suggests substantial potential for consumer spending, with new consumption and service sectors expected to drive domestic economic growth, potentially offsetting some negative impacts from tariffs [2] Future Market Outlook - Opportunities in the A-share market are anticipated to improve significantly post-April, as investor concerns over earnings have eased, potentially increasing risk appetite [3] - Focus areas for investment include technology growth, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption sectors, which are expected to attract investor participation and enhance market activity [3]