摩根士丹利基金投研手记：债市交易渐向基本面回归，货币政策节奏博弈增强

Group 1 - The capital market is expected to focus more on the impact and response to the fundamental changes following the tariff policy negotiations [2] - The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction, with the export new orders index falling to 44.7%, the lowest level since 2023 [2] - The real estate sector continues to face significant pressure, with rising inventory levels and weakening second-hand home transactions in first-tier cities [2] Group 2 - The current interest rate curve is relatively flat, with the yield spread at a low level, indicating potential for downward movement if liquidity increases [3] - The overall leverage level of institutional investors in the bond market is lower than last year, reducing the likelihood of a sharp market correction [3] - The monetary policy stance remains supportive, with expectations for increased liquidity in response to domestic economic pressures [1][2]