瑞典银行下调瑞典经济增长预期 预计央行年内两次降息至1.75%

Core Viewpoint - Swedbank has significantly revised its forecast for the Swedish central bank's benchmark interest rate, now predicting a cumulative cut of 50 basis points to 1.75% by the end of Q3 this year, a major shift from the previous expectation of a single cut of 25 basis points to 2.25% in August [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The largest economy in the Nordic region is facing three pressures: external uncertainty due to U.S. trade policies, concerns over stagnation in domestic economic recovery, and persistent core inflation that constrains monetary policy [1] - Despite signs of overall inflation easing, the core CPI, excluding energy and food, remains sticky, contrasting with a potential GDP growth rate that may fall below 1.5% [1] Group 2: Trade Impact - The report emphasizes that the chain reaction from U.S. tariffs cannot be overlooked, as trade friction will impact the Swedish economy through reduced export orders, slowed business investment, and weakened consumer confidence [2] - Consequently, Swedbank has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.5%, while maintaining the growth estimate of 1.5% for this year [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - For neighboring Norway, Swedbank maintains the baseline forecast for the European Central Bank to initiate rate cuts in September, with an added expectation of a second cut in December, predicting four consecutive cuts to 3% by 2026 [2] - Analysts note that the policy shift by the Swedish central bank reflects the unique challenges faced by Nordic economies, which must guard against imported inflation risks while addressing the impacts of protectionism on export-driven economies [2]