在贸易局势等紧张气氛下 美元避险光环黯淡

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the U.S. dollar's status as a safe haven have increased significantly, with over 55% of respondents in a recent survey expressing worries, up from about one-third in the previous survey [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The majority of market participants currently lack a clear alternative to the U.S. dollar despite rising concerns [1] - Analysts indicate that the focus has shifted from stimulus to long-term fiscal concerns, impacting the dollar's attractiveness [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Standard Chartered's global G10 FX research head, Steve Englander, emphasizes heightened worries about the dollar's future [1] - Wells Fargo Securities' macro strategist, Erik Nelson, predicts a bearish outlook for the dollar in the second half of the year, citing weak U.S. economic data and potential Fed rate cuts [1] - UBS's senior U.S. economist, Brian Rose, highlights that the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining the dollar's safe haven status [1] Group 3: Alternative Safe Havens - The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, serving as alternative safe havens [1]