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开源证券:“好房子”形成品质代差 拓宽房地产增量需求
智通财经网·2025-05-06 12:01

Core Viewpoint - The real estate "de-inventory" strategy is primarily driven by the reversal of supply-demand dynamics and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing and an extended inventory digestion cycle [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current real estate cycle has seen a significant change in supply-demand relationships, officially entering a de-inventory phase as of July 2023, with over 30 months of continuous decline in sales volume and price [2][4]. - The scale of housing and inventory in this cycle is larger compared to previous downturns, with substantial monetary and fiscal policy support already in place since 2024 [2][4]. Group 2: Policy and Quality Improvement - The focus of housing development has shifted from mere availability to quality, with government initiatives aimed at increasing the supply of "good houses" and enhancing construction standards [2][3]. - New national standards for residential projects, effective from March 31, 2025, will enforce stricter requirements on various aspects of housing construction, leading to improved quality in new residential buildings [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and a good grasp of improvement-oriented customer demand, such as Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [1][4]. - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and New City Holdings, are also highlighted [1][4]. - The second-hand housing market is expected to grow, with companies like Beike-W and I Love My Home positioned to capitalize on this trend [1][4].