MCK Stock Up 24% YTD: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Before Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - McKesson Corporation is expected to report significant revenue and earnings growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by the adoption of GLP-1 weight loss drugs, demand for specialty pharmaceuticals, and investments in technology and distribution [1][3][16]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The rapid adoption of GLP-1 weight loss drugs and sustained demand for branded pharmaceuticals have significantly fueled McKesson's revenue growth [1][6]. - A rebound in primary care visits has also supported top-line growth in the last two reported quarters [2]. - Investments in expanding distribution centers and integrating artificial intelligence into services have bolstered revenues [2][20]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $9.81 per share, reflecting a 58.7% year-over-year improvement [3]. - The consensus revenue estimate is $93.7 billion, indicating a 22.7% year-over-year surge [3]. Segment Performance Insights - The U.S. Pharmaceutical segment is expected to show steady growth, driven by strong demand for specialty pharmaceuticals, particularly oncology treatments [4]. - The Prescription Technology Solutions segment is projected to see revenues of $1.33 billion, a 12.3% year-over-year improvement, supported by strong demand for technology services [9]. - The Medical Surgical Solutions segment is estimated to generate $2.8 billion, reflecting a 1.5% decline year-over-year due to less demand for illness season products [11]. Strategic Initiatives - McKesson has expanded its distribution network by opening new technologically advanced centers and acquiring stakes in oncology-related ventures, which are expected to enhance its service delivery and revenue growth [17][18]. - The company is leveraging advanced technologies, particularly AI, to improve service delivery and streamline operations [20]. Market Position and Performance - McKesson's shares have gained 24.1% this year, outperforming the industry, which has declined by 2.1% [21]. - The company is recognized for its extensive distribution network, which includes over 50,000 pharmacies and nearly 900,000 healthcare providers, enhancing its appeal to pharmaceutical manufacturers [19].