人民币汇率拉升释放积极信号，未来走势取决于两个因素

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a combination of factors, including a softening stance from the US on tariff negotiations and proactive macroeconomic policies from China aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][2][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On May 6, the onshore RMB rose significantly against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.2105, the highest level since November of the previous year [1]. - During the May Day holiday, the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.9%, with notable increases of over 650 points on May 2 and again on May 5, peaking at 7.19 [1]. - The RMB's overall stability amidst global market fluctuations caused by US tariff policies indicates a resilient exchange rate [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The recent strength of the RMB is attributed to the US's willingness to engage in tariff negotiations, as indicated by statements from US officials, which has positively influenced the RMB's value [2]. - The Chinese government's commitment to implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, as discussed in the April 25 Politburo meeting, aims to stabilize employment and market expectations, further supporting the RMB [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade talks and the performance of the US dollar [4]. - The potential for a more flexible US stance on tariffs may reduce downward pressure on the RMB, suggesting that the most significant depreciation risks may have passed [4]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern against the dollar, with relatively smaller volatility compared to other major currencies [4]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals Supporting RMB Stability - The foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is strong, supported by positive domestic economic indicators and China's institutional advantages, including a large market and effective governance mechanisms [5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system, aiming to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB [5].