美联储调查：滞胀阴影下 多数受访者仍预计央行年内将降息

Group 1 - The market sentiment regarding the U.S. economy is increasingly pessimistic due to high inflation, rising unemployment, and economic slowdown, with a significant majority expecting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in response to economic weakness [1][2] - A recent survey indicates that 65% of respondents believe the Federal Reserve will opt for rate cuts despite persistent inflation, a notable increase from 44% in March [1] - The probability of the U.S. entering a recession within the next 12 months has surged from 22% to 53%, marking the largest increase between two surveys since 2022 [2] Group 2 - The consumer price index is projected to rise from the current 2.4% to 3.2% by the end of the year, with expectations of a decline to 2.6% by 2026 [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4.2% to 4.7%, remaining at that level through 2026, while GDP growth is forecasted at only 0.8% for this year, significantly lower than last year's 3.1% [2] - Concerns about stock market valuations are growing, with 69% of respondents believing the market is "clearly or partially overvalued," an increase from 56% in March [3] Group 3 - Trade policies, particularly high tariffs, are seen as a long-term economic concern, with 63% of respondents believing that a 10% comprehensive tariff will be maintained [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is inhibiting corporate investment plans and new orders, as noted by economic experts [4] - A significant 74% of respondents believe that the government's promised tax cuts and deregulation cannot offset the negative impacts of tariffs on the economy [5]