Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Shopify Stock Before Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Shopify is expected to report strong revenue and earnings growth in its first-quarter 2025 results, driven by an expanding merchant base and international growth. Group 1: Financial Expectations - Shopify anticipates revenue growth at a mid-twenties percentage rate year-over-year, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues at $2.33 billion, indicating a 25.24% increase from the previous year [1] - The consensus estimate for earnings is set at 26 cents per share, reflecting a 30% growth compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter GMV is pegged at $75 billion, suggesting a 23% year-over-year growth [4] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Shopify's growth is attributed to a strong increase in its merchant base, with a cumulative GMV of $1 trillion processed in Q4 2024, marking a 25.7% year-over-year increase [3] - The growing usage of Shop Pay and new product launches, such as Shopify Balance for Plus and next-day payouts, are expected to enhance cash flow management and merchant adoption [4] - Subscription solutions revenues are estimated at $621 million, indicating a 21.5% year-over-year growth, while Merchant Solutions revenues are expected to reach $1.71 billion, suggesting a 26.7% increase [5] Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - Shopify shares have declined 7.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's decline of 7.6% and the Internet Services industry's drop of 11.3% [6] - Despite the decline, Shopify's stock is trading at a premium with a forward Price/Sales ratio of 11.1X, compared to the industry average of 4.88X [10] - Shopify commands 12% of the U.S. ecommerce market and is experiencing rapid growth in Europe and Japan, indicating a strong long-term outlook [13] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - Shopify's partnerships with major companies like Amazon and Roblox are expected to enhance its merchant base and provide access to extensive fulfillment networks [15] - The expansion of Shopify Tax in the UK and EU, along with the introduction of Tap to Pay in multiple countries, is seen as a positive development for growth [14] - Collaborations with platforms such as TikTok, Snap, and YouTube are anticipated to further expand Shopify's reach and capabilities [14]