Microchip Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Microchip Technology (MCHP) is expected to report a significant decline in revenues and earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic challenges and operational restructuring efforts [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Microchip anticipates net sales between $920 million and $1 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with non-GAAP earnings expected between 5 cents and 15 cents per share [1]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is $961.07 million, indicating a 27.51% decline from the previous year's quarter [1]. - The consensus for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is set at 10 cents per share, representing an 82.46% year-over-year decline [2]. Operational Insights - Inventory levels have improved, reaching 266 days in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, an increase of 19 days sequentially, with expectations for a decrease in inventory days and dollar value in the upcoming quarter [3]. - Operating expenses are projected to rise to 37.7%-40.5% of sales in the fiscal fourth quarter, compared to 34.9% in the fiscal third quarter [5]. - The company is expected to incur $45 million in charges related to the cancellation of certain long-term agreements, negatively impacting the bottom line [5]. Market Context - Microchip is facing persistent macroeconomic weakness and limited visibility, particularly in the industrial and automotive sectors, but benefits from a diverse product portfolio and expansion into megatrends such as Edge Computing, IoT, and AI/ML [4]. - The company has initiated a corporate-wide layoff to drive operational savings [4]. Earnings Expectations - Microchip has an Earnings ESP of +8.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a potential for an earnings beat [6].