Hudson Pacific Properties: Beware The Perceived Discount

Core Viewpoint - Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. (HPP) is trading at a significant discount, approximately 30% of its Net Asset Value (NAV), but this discount may be misleading due to high leverage and the overall capital structure [1][12]. Valuation Metrics - The consensus NAV for HPP is $7.61, while the stock is trading at $2.32, indicating a price to NAV of 29.71% [2][4]. - The market capitalization of fully diluted common shares is $338 million, with a NAV implied common value of $1.109 billion [7][8]. Financial Structure - HPP's total liabilities, including preferred shares, amount to $5.379 billion, with total debt at $4.176 billion [5][6]. - The asset value at NAV is $6.488 billion, while the market price implied asset value is $5.717 billion, resulting in a discount of 12% from asset value [10]. Leverage Impact - HPP's high leverage means that an 18% decline in asset value could lead to common shares being wiped out, taking NAV per share to $0 [12][13]. - The leverage amplifies both potential gains and losses, making the investment sensitive to changes in asset value [16]. Investment Thesis - For HPP to be a viable investment, there must be a belief in a turnaround story, particularly in stabilizing occupancy and returning to growth in office assets [14][15]. - The potential for significant returns exists if the office market improves, as leverage could enhance the gains on common stock [16].