产量保持增长 需求不断增加 未来十年我国奶业向好发展

Core Insights - The "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2025-2034)" predicts a growth trend in dairy production and demand over the next decade, with a stabilization and potential increase in fresh milk prices [1][4] Group 1: Dairy Production - Dairy production is expected to maintain a growth trend, with an estimated production of 4,100 million tons by 2025, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous year, and reaching 5,703 million tons by 2034, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2% [3][4] - The number of dairy cows is projected to slightly decrease, with a total of 11.78 million cows and a dairy production of 4,163 million tons in 2024, reflecting a 2.8% decline from the previous year [1][2] Group 2: Dairy Consumption - Dairy consumption is anticipated to continue increasing, with a projected consumption of 5,506 million tons by 2025, a decrease of 3.3% from the previous year, and reaching 7,581 million tons by 2034, with an average annual growth rate of 2.7% [3][4] - Per capita dairy consumption is expected to rise from 40.7 kg in 2029 to 49.2 kg by 2034, indicating a long-term growth potential in consumer demand [3][4] Group 3: Dairy Imports - Dairy product imports are expected to stop declining and show a slight growth trend, with an estimated import volume of 1,452 million tons (equivalent to fresh milk) by 2025, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous year, and reaching 2,007 million tons by 2034 [4] - The import value of dairy products is projected to stabilize, with a long-term supply gap in the domestic market [4] Group 4: Pricing Trends - Fresh milk prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise, with an average price range of 3.10 to 3.65 yuan per kilogram anticipated for 2025, following a period of low prices [4] - The ongoing optimization of dairy production capacity and reduction in dairy cow numbers may lead to a turning point in the oversupply situation by the second half of 2025 [4]