Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent significant increase in soybean meal prices is primarily due to short-term supply disruptions, while downstream demand remains stable [1][2][3] - The average ex-factory price of soybean meal has risen to over 4000 yuan per ton, marking a cumulative increase of approximately 30% since mid-April [2] - The supply tightness is attributed to delayed harvesting in Brazil due to excessive rainfall, leading to a 55% year-on-year decrease in soybean imports from Brazil in the first quarter [2][5] Group 2 - Downstream feed and livestock demand for soybean meal is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in pig feed demand and stable poultry production [3][4] - The industry has enhanced its risk awareness and diversified feed formulations to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations, with significant progress in low soybean meal and no soybean meal formulations [4] - The Agricultural Ministry has issued standards and action plans to promote low-protein diets, which will help the industry adapt to rising raw material prices [4] Group 3 - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase significantly, with imports projected to reach 74.65 million tons in 2024, accounting for 71% of total soybean imports [5] - The second quarter is the peak season for Brazilian soybean exports, with expected arrivals of over 1.2 million tons in May and 1.1 million tons in June, which will alleviate the current supply shortage [6] - As a result of increased soybean supply, soybean meal prices are anticipated to gradually decline, with recent prices dropping below 3500 yuan per ton [6][7]
需求基本稳定、供应数量充裕 后期豆粕市场价格将逐步回落
Zhong Guo Chan Ye Jing Ji Xin Xi Wang·2025-05-07 00:05