Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 6, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9175 (-25) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1000 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11600 (+0) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2850 (-250) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 285 (-235) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In April, China's butadiene production was 443,100 tons, down 3.8% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, down 5.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.39 million units, down 7.2% month-on-month, and down 0.77% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 13.08 million units, down 4.5% month-on-month, and down 3.4% year-on-year [2] - As of May 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed divergence: butadiene industry operating rate was 68.9%, down 2% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate was 71.9%, up 5.8% month-on-month; semi-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 66.7%, down 7.8% month-on-month; full-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 59.5%, down 9.5% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of May 2, butadiene port inventory was 36,500 tons, up 1,700 tons month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,850 tons, down 1,790 tons, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month; traders' inventory was 5,100 tons, up 1,490 tons, an increase of 41.3% month-on-month [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on May 6, Maoming Petrochemical's 5,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is scheduled for maintenance starting May 7, lasting approximately 20 days; downstream SBS units will also undergo maintenance [4] Market Analysis - On May 6, crude oil rebounded from low levels, boosting BR slightly, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2506 closing at 11,315 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Tariff issues have led to a decline in demand, and the supply of styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to increase significantly in May, resulting in a loose supply-demand balance. The butadiene supply-demand situation remains challenging due to simultaneous maintenance and production ramp-up in domestic facilities, with no significant contraction in domestic supply. Despite many Asian ethylene facilities undergoing maintenance in May, tariff issues may lead to a severe decline in orders for the automotive and tire manufacturing industries in Japan and South Korea, impacting the demand for butadiene in these regions and potentially leading to oversupply, which could increase imports to China or decrease Asian butadiene prices. Therefore, the cost support for BR is limited. In the natural rubber sector, smooth tapping in domestic and foreign production areas is pushing the supply side into seasonal weakness, putting pressure on natural rubber prices. On a macro level, the unresolved "tariff war" continues to create uncertainty in the market. Overall, cost support is limited, and with increased supply and weak demand for styrene-butadiene rubber, BR is expected to face downward pressure [5]
合成橡胶：原油低位反弹 提振BR小幅反弹
Jin Tou Wang·2025-05-07 02:10